As I write this, the world is in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2). As a world, at the beginning of May, we crossed 300,000 deaths, and we have more ahead of us. Our hospitals have been swamped, our medics are working flat out, double shifts in many cases, schools have closed and normal life has been suspended while the world’s governments try to bring it under control. We are in the surreal position, that everyone knows that this is only a temporary respite until a vaccine is available sometime in 2021. I started trying to keep a graph, but I stopped after about 6 weeks, it was just too depressing…. If you are into the data, you’ll find the latest stats here. UK is set to be the worst place in Europe within a few weeks, I suspect.
Source – Our world in data
However, there is hope out there – there are signs that things are coming under control. In many countries, even the UK, the death rate is slowing, some are thankfully starting to ease lockdown, but there is no doubt about the world’s economy is in a bit of a mess!
So What is happening?
How is everyone taking the changes to our lifestyle? The answer is many faceted, but here are a few examples.
- Some are taking it very well, particularly the very elderly. A friend 91, now effectively house bound, or should I say room bound in a tiny apartment, is remarkably sanguine about it. Everyone in the complex is doing the same. No-one is letting anyone, even family, in and food deliveries are left outside their front doors… Many of these older people lived through WW2 and rationing, so they are just shrugging their shoulders and turning the TV on! Let’s face it, the very elderly are among the ones who are most exposed, but the general feedback, is we’ve had a good innings and we have to die at some stage, so I’m not going to worry about it!
- Some are behaving very badly. Here in the UK, we have experienced panic buying on everything, from toilet rolls, to pasta, soap to hand sanitiser. As some wise person pointed out – do you think the average person understands the difference between norovirus and coronavirus? Equally, while all the pasta sold out initially, all the jars of pasta sauce were still there, so what were they going to put on their pasta? People working shifts, initially couldn’t even feed themselves properly. Thankfully it has settled down.
- Some people are being really helpful. There are many stories of people who are putting notes through neighbour’s letterboxes, saying we can do your shopping for you, or if you need help, just call. Local area Facebook groups have sprung up everywhere, to support each other. Students who are off from college, have been volunteering to help with childcare, visiting elderly people, shelf stacking etc. These heartwarming stories offset the doom and gloom of the selfish panic buyers.
- Most people are just being sensible. My husband is 70+, and is one of those advised to stay home, except for a daily walk in the fresh air, in a quiet area where he won’t meet anyone. I am younger than him, but if I go out and about and acquire the infection, that isn’t helping, so I am staying home as well. Many of our friends are doing much the same. Maybe this year our garden will look fantastic, without a weed in sight. (or maybe not! I’m really not into weeding!)
- Some of the younger generation are just ignoring it, continuing to go out socially, but as more pictures are emerging of 20 year olds lying on hospital trolleys, saying this is not just a cold, this hurts, this is real, they are starting to wake up.
- People are innovating, and innovating fast. My very small Spanish school, has organised themselves to run online courses, as they can no longer do face to face classes for the immediate future. They’re back in business, although they will have a drop-off in custom, but as we are housebound, this is a nice way to keep in contact. The supermarkets are getting together to share deliveries and optimise stock. Office based businesses are pulling out all the stops to enable their staff to work from home. Netflix is even doing their bit, they are reducing the picture quality so it takes up less broadband. Schools and universities are ramping up their online education.
Where do we go next?
As my husband recently pointed out, there is no obvious Exit Strategy. None of the answers are pleasant. We either
- eliminate the virus, and all our countries reacted too late to do that. By the time everyone woke up to it, the cat (or virus) was out of the bag! A few exceptions such as New Zealand, but they are now exposed to any person coming into the country bringing it back in again…
- we live with it, until an effective vaccine is found, and made available to all. The current preferred course of action is hibernation – social distancing and self-isolation. (I am discovering this is making me really lazy. When all your days are the same, there is a huge opportunity to procrastinate…)
- we take the hard course, and all generate a herd immunity. I think this was what the UK government was hoping for until they realised the hospitals just wouldn’t cope, and some very hard decisions would have to be made, such as – If you are 75 or over, you will not be treated… Political suicide. Not attractive to a politician.
- we must work out a way to protect our more vulnerable communities. Across the world, the impact has been most felt in Care Homes. (Sweden, UK, US) Once a virus comes in to a closed community, it wreaks havoc. More than two thirds of the care homes in Scotland have been affected. In Sweden much of their death rate is down to infection in larger Care Homes.
Two Different Points of View
Give up Lockdown v Keep Lockdown. There is some evidence starting to emerge that the virus might be easing, regardless. Those countries easing lockdown are not experiencing a surge in new cases as they expected. Maybe Social Distancing, and ‘Wash Your Hands’ was all that is needed. Can we speed up our ‘Opening Up’ activities. We have all become so scared…. The data is certainly starting to show that Social Distancing / Masks are pretty effective, and those countries haven’t seen the massive employment hit that UK has.
Follow the data has become the message…. It will be interesting to see the review in this in a year, always supposing I survive the expected far larger peak this coming winter.
The long term impact?
The world as we know it has changed for the long term. That sounds a pessimistic statement, but it is really an optimistic one. How? Why?
As the world has shut down much of its manufacturing, and people are not commuting and working from home, the evidence from satellite pictures is too overwhelming to ignore. We have vastly trimmed our carbon emissions. This pandemic, has been fantastic for the health of our planet. Venice canals are returning to their normal blue colour, not a murky brown.
That leads me on to Travel. Over the last 40 or 50 years, we all have acquired more leisure time, we have all taken to exploring the world by sea (cruising) and by air (cheap package holidays). The grey-haired among us (including myself) have health and energy, so we are making up for the opportunities that weren’t available to us when we were younger. But that in itself has led to a crisis. Small places like Venice in Italy and Skye in Scotland, are completely swamped by tourists. Venice in daytime is totally drowned in day trips from cruise ships, Skye is overrun with tour groups. The whole character of Edinburgh, my city, is changing. It is now a totally service economy – a cafe and tourist culture. Sadly it will be a long time until I see Madrid again. I do so want to practice my Spanish, but not this summer….
Behaviour Change is inevitable. Physical shops are no longer a necessity – everything is available online. This is a side effect of our quarantine arrangements. More and more of us are being forced to order online. After potentially 3-6 months of isolation, how many shops are still going to be around? Once we have got used to not ‘nipping down to the shops’, why would we bother to start again? So instead of shop assistants, we have a new growth industry in delivery drivers. So what will populate our High Streets? Will today’s shop units just become cafe, restaurants and leisure opportunities, or will they return to residential places?
Will people want to start travelling again? I think our world will become more insular. More and more the words might be – we’ll maybe not bother this year, we’ll give everything time to settle down. prices are bound to rise. Many airlines and travel agents will have gone bust, so choices will be far more limited than before. Countries may return to only having one airline, and I suspect people may be less willing to climb on the massive cruise ships.
Impact on People and Family Relationships
Take a young family unit impacted by social distancing – two parents working full-time from home, with two young children under 5. No available childcare, nurseries closed and grandparents unable to help because of age and/or health issues. Museums, playcentres are all closed because of risk of infection. Father starts working at 6am until 9am, Mother gets the children up and dressed, she works from 9-12, while father looks after children, then signs off for 1 hour lunch, she picks up childcare, father works from 12-1, then they swap yet again, she works from 1-4pm, and they swap, father works until 8pm. If they are really lucky they might grab a chat, the children may play ‘lightly supervised’ for about an hour. It is probably 9pm at earliest that they can grab an hour together. Then 10pm bed, and tomorrow the treadmill starts again.
Take another young family, both working in front-line occupations, two young children, one or both working shifts. Grandparents already helping, few childcare options. Their lives are just a mass of juggling childcare in among a busy and sometimes traumatic working life.
Then there is the older couple. Both have always led very busy lives, each doing very different things. Now they are thrust together 24 x 7, and they find out each other has annoying habits! A retirement plan they certainly hadn’t expected!
What is that sort of pressure going to do to their long term relationships. Yes, it is fine for a week or two, even a month or two. But 6 months? Apparently the divorce rate in Wuhan is increasing. I am not surprised.
Then there are people with mental health issues and/or disabilities. I know of several people who already suffer from isolation issues, and find it hard to be on their own. They are not going to cope with self-isolation well. Their support lifelines are under threat. My neighbour works with older people. they have been told to talk to them by phone, and if they do have to visit face to face, they are not allowed to stay in the room for more than 15 minutes. Another relies on a regular visit from a mental health nurse, and is extremely worried about how she will cope without that support.
Add into this, the trauma of a family member being hospitalised. No visiting, and in some cases, even end-of-life care is only available via Zoom. So hard for those who are ill, but almost worse for those waiting outside, desperate to hold their hand, or speak to them. No easy answer.
Will the world return to normal?
I am hopeful that we can learn from some of those places, where they implemented the use of masks, and social distancing, but didn’t close everything down. Sweden and Taiwan come to mind. We have to come up with a solution that lets our young people roam free again, and get our economy kicked into life again. We older people, need to recognise that maybe we need to stay home more.
There is also a rising awareness that perhaps our lifestyles have contributed to the problem. The epidemic of Type 2 diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure, are risk markers. Many people in Lockdown are trying to use the time to improve their weight, take exercise and generally come out of lockdown healthier than before. (Sadly, we haven’t been totally successful in this area… We have had more snacks in the last 6 weeks than in the last 6 months. So a Work In Progress here…) One for another day!
Stay safe
Keep washing your hands, keep your distance and generally look after yourself. This is a marathon, not a sprint! This is the New Normal, and it will be with us for months to come!
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